quinta-feira, 9 de setembro de 2010
What is Limiting Brazil's Productivity-Enhancing Policies?
Although these studies start out with more or less the same puzzle, the final answer as to what is the key binding constraint for economic growth in Brazil is not always the same, as could be expected. Even though each author stresses a different constraint as the most important, the stories are not radically different; a common set of policy areas emerges from the literature as the problematic issues that would have to be addressed for the country's growth potential to be realized. What does not emerge from this literature, however, is an analysis of the political economy determinants of the policy choices that have led to these constraints and impeded the reforms that would tackle or ameliorate them.
If a given policy is found to be particularly constraining and yet the opportunity to improve growth and social welfare by changing the policy is systematically forgone, we need to discern which aspects of the country's political institutions drive that outcome. For example, rather than simply recognizing that poor infrastructure is an important constraint to economic growth and productivity, the analysis should focus on why the political choices arose and persist that led to this state of affairs and even now impede the obvious solution of investing more in infrastructure. The puzzling choice of the systematic lack of investment in infrastructure, for example, becomes clear once one understands that Brazilian presidents, although constitutionally and politically very strong, are constrained in their efforts to achieve fiscal discipline by a massively hardwired budget (over 90 percent) that mandates expenditures. In addition, a president has to exchange macroeconomic stability for geographically oriented policies with members of his coalition in Congress, which also decreases resources for investments. The only instruments available to presidents to achieve fiscal targets are taxation (by far the highest in Latin America), borrowing (also stretched to the limit), and the compression of remaining expenditures, such as investment in infrastructure.
The essence of the argument is that political institutions in Brazil generate a series of policies with desirable characteristics in terms of productivity and economic growth while at the same time imposing severe constraints that hinder those same aspirations. Although political institutions provide the president with the incentives and the instruments to pursue monetary stability and fiscal discipline—necessary conditions for improvements in productivity and sustainable economic growth—they simultaneously raise the costs of achieving those very objectives. By insulating several expenditures from the president's discretion, political institutions force the use of other policy options, such as high taxation levels and cuts in unprotected expenditures, which puts a drag on productivity and growth. This results in an environment that possesses many essential elements for sustainable economic growth, but where several accompanying distortions conspire against its realization. The upshot is that although improvements in productivity and growth have materialized in the past decade, the pace has been slow, gradual and incremental.
The role of checks and balances and of interest groups in this process follows the same pattern of promoting virtuous policies while simultaneously creating obstacles for their full realization. Checks and balances, such as the judiciary and the media, are crucial in dissuading the president from deviating from policies that would create an environment conducive to productivity and growth. These very same checks protect entitlements and expenditures, thus forcing the government to seek forms of financing, such as increased taxation, which have negative impacts on productivity and growth. Similarly, the fragmentation of several major interest groups has diluted the potential negative impact of their demands on the government's expenditures. Yet at the same time, it is the interest of several other groups, enshrined in hardwired budgetary legislation, which creates the protected expenditures that force the government to use productivity-reducing policy choices to secure monetary and fiscal stability, for example by neglecting infrastructure investment.
Although the government has maintained fiscal discipline, managing to reverse the trend in public debt and bringing it down to more manageable levels, it was reached at the cost of an ever-increasing tax burden and the suppression of several important expenditures considering them as residual, in particular those related to infrastructure. Analyses shows that the drop in infrastructure investment as a percentage of GDP in the last decade has tracked the growing fiscal effort by the government, suggesting that infrastructure investment is in fact crowded out by the state's need to finance those other expenditures, which are not similarly compressible.
It is important to acknowledge, however, that the decline in public investment in infrastructure is a common trend in most Latin American countries, with an average decline of about 2.27 percent in the last decade. In some cases, notably in Chile and Colombia, this decline was caught up by a massive private investment compensating for the lack of public investments. Although private financing of infrastructure exists in Brazil, it has been very low (about 1 percent of GDP) and has never reached the scale of Chile and Colombia, 5.7 and 2.6 percent of GDP respectively.
Why has Brazil faced so many difficulties to attract private investments in infrastructure? According to the World Bank (2007), "regardless of the indicator used, data show that returns on infrastructure concessions in Brazil have not been sufficient to compensate for the opportunity costs of capital." Low investment returns in infrastructure are closely related to relatively high and risky opportunity costs for business in Brazil. Faced with the risk of administrative expropriation by future governments, private investors have been discouraged from financing infrastructure projects.
Because country risk has reduced since 2008, when Brazil was able to convince several credit ratings agencies to raise Brazilian debt to investment grade, the country can obtain significant gains. However, there are still concerns about the governance conditions of the regulatory environment of Brazilian regulators. There is evidence, for instance, that the government has systematically impounding agencies' budgets, which has tremendously threatened their autonomy and capacity to operate (Correa et al. 2006). Also, there has been excessive government interference on contract renegotiations revising tariffs and investment plans, which might be an indication of poorly designed concession contracts and the weakness of an independent regulator.
Therefore, if the problem is an overburdened state, which has to tax, borrow and trim down other investments to maintain entitlements and other commitments, then which expenditures have such a constraining effect on the economy? Although there are several expenditures in this category, the one that stands out high above all others is outlays for social security and pensions. Practically one-third of the federal budget is devoted to these expenditures, whereas expenditures in investments were less than 6 percent in 2003. Pensions in Brazil since the 1988 constitution have been notably generous, especially in the civil service. A new group of non-contributing rural pensions was added, contributing to systematic deficits. With about 11.7 percent of GDP, Brazil has one of the highest social security expenditures in the world, especially considering that the Brazilian population is much younger than that of most countries with similar levels of expenditure.
The equilibrium that emerges from these opposing forces is one in which economic growth and improvements in productivity are realized but at a pace and scope that are limited by the constraints created by political institutions. This is in many respects a remarkable outcome given the history of the Brazilian economy in the past several decades. Although elements that conspire against growth and productivity have always thrived, the necessary conditions for the virtuous aspects of the policymaking process to materialize are extremely demanding. The approach suggested here thus emphasizes those aspects of the political institutions and policymaking processes that have led to this net-positive equilibrium, though we temper this assessment with the recognition of the many distortions that mitigate what is actually achieved.
>References
Alston, L., M. Melo, B. Mueller, and C. Pereira (2010). "The Political Economy of Productivity in Brazil," IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-104
Correa, P., C. Pereira, B. Mueller, and M. Marcus (2006). "Regulatory Governance in Infrastructure Governance," the World Bank
The World Bank (2007). "How to Revitalize Infrastructure Investments in Brazil: Public Policies for better Private Participation," Report No. 36624-BR, page 52
The World Bank (2008). "The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development," Washington, DC: Commission on Growth and Development.
[1]Private investment in Brazil has been also smaller than other East Asian countries such as Thailand and Philippines
>>> Disponivel em http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0901_brazil_economy_pereira.aspx#_ftnref1
..:: Juan Robles ::..
quinta-feira, 12 de agosto de 2010
Indicador de "Confiança" Economica - União Europeia
Meses após uma das piores crises da União Europeia, indicadore de confiança na Economia aponta melhoras através do aumento do comércio.
In July, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up to 102.2 (by 1.9 points) in the EU and to 101.3 (by 2.3 points) in the euro area. These results are strongly influenced by markedly positive readings in Germany.
Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.)
EU: July 102.2 Euro area: July 101.3
The majority of Member States reported improvements in sentiment. Among the largest Member States, Germany registered the most significant increase (+4.0), followed by France (+2.6), Poland (+1.9) and Italy (+1.7). Improvements were less pronounced in the UK (+1.4) and the Netherlands (+1.2). In contrast, sentiment declined in Spain (-2.2).
Sentiment in industry, which increased by 2 points in both regions, was the main contributor to the overall improvement. Most respondents in this sector reported substantial improvements in their order books. However, managers were cautious on their production expectations. The quarterly manufacturing survey indicates an increase in capacity utilisation. It now stands at about 77% in both the EU and the euro area, though still below the long term average (81%).
As indicated in the flash estimate released earlier, confidence among consumers regained momentum (+3 in the euro area and +1 in the EU). More optimism about the general economic situation and very significant easing unemployment fears in Germany contributed to the overall improvement. Confidence in services improved by 2 points in the EU and the euro area, driven by brighter assessments of demand and the business situation over the past 3 months. Sentiment in the retail sector increased by 2 points in the euro area and by 4 points in the EU, mainly owing to upbeat business expectations in the UK and in Germany. Sentiment in construction remained broadly unchanged in both regions.
Confidence in financial services –not included in the ESI– recorded the second significant drop in a row in the EU (-6), driven mainly by a sharply negative assessment of expected demand.
In the euro area the confidence continued to increase (+3).
Industrial confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: July -4
Euro area: July -4
EU: July 6
Euro area: July 6
Consumer confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: July -14
Euro area: July -14
Retail trade confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: July 0
Euro area: July -4
Construction confidence indicator (s.a.)
EU: July -32
Euro area: July -29
Financial services confidence indicator (n.s.a.)
EU: July 12
Euro area: July 23
Full tables are available on:
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm
>>>> Disponível em http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/10/1014&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
..:: Juan Robles ::..
terça-feira, 3 de agosto de 2010
Mercosul e Egito fazem última negociação antes de cúpula
Alexandre Rocha
São Paulo – Representantes do Mercosul e do Egito vão se reunir em 31 de julho e 01 de agosto, em San Juan, na Argentina, para tentar finalizar o acordo de livre comércio que negociam e deixá-lo pronto para ser assinado no encontro de cúpula do bloco sul-americano, que vai ocorrer no dia 03 do mês que vem, na mesma cidade.
"Se conseguirmos resolver as pendências [existentes], será a ocasião para assiná-lo [em San Juan]", disse ontem (27) o embaixador Evandro Didonet, chefe do Departamento de Negociações Internacionais do Itamaraty (DNI). "Se não conseguirmos, as negociações seguem e tentaremos concluí-lo mais à frente", acrescentou. O ministro da Indústria e Comércio do Egito, Rachid Mohamed Rachid, deverá comparecer à Cúpula do Mercosul.
A quinta rodada de negociações ocorreu entre os dias 12 e 15 deste mês, em Buenos Aires, mas não foi possível chegar a um consenso sobre todos os temas. De acordo com Didonet, ainda estão aberto questões sobre as regras de origem e sobre as "cestas de cronogramas" de alguns produtos, que é o tempo previsto para a entrada em vigor da desgravação tarifária sobre determinados itens.
O embaixador afirmou que há um esboço de acordo na seara das regras de origem, mas ainda "faltam alguns ajustes" no que diz respeito a regras mais favoráveis "às economias menores do Mercosul", ou seja, o Uruguai e o Paraguai. Há debate também sobre as regras aplicáveis ao setor têxtil.
As regras de origem definem a porcentagem de nacionalização que um produto deve ter para ter direito aos benefícios do acordo. Em outros tratados negociados pelo bloco, por exemplo, itens produzidos no Uruguai e no Paraguai podem ter, por determinado tempo, índices de nacionalização inferiores aos exigidos do Brasil e da Argentina.
No que diz respeito aos cronogramas de desgravação, Didonet disse que o Mercosul pede maior rapidez do Egito no início dos benefícios tarifários sobre certos produtos, e vice-versa. Além disso, ainda não foi definida a inclusão de alguns itens nas cestas de desgravação, especialmente alguns de interesse do Brasil, como frangos, café solúvel e certos tipos de papel.
O embaixador destacou, porém, que os ajustes necessários são "na margem" e não devem impedir a conclusão. "Todas as partes estão empenhadas em fechar o acordo. O Egito é um mercado importante e [o acordo] é uma meta compartilhada [pelos sócios do Mercosul]", declarou. "Da mesma forma, há muito comprometimento do Egito, muita vontade política de fechar [o tratado]", concluiu.
>>>> Disponível em http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/sala-de-imprensa/selecao-diaria-de-noticias/midias-nacionais/brasil/agencia-de-noticias-brasil-arabe/2010/07/29/mercosul-e-egito-fazem-ultima-negociacao-antes-de
..:: Juan Robles ::..
Lula chega hoje a San Juan para a 39ª Cúpula do Mercosul
Timerman apresentará uma análise dos diversos aspectos da integração regional nos seis meses em que a presidente da Argentina, Cristina Kirchner, exerceu a presidência rotativa do Mercosul que, no encerramento da cúpula, será transferida a Lula. O presidente brasileiro exercerá a função pelos próximos seis meses.
Amanhã (3), os presidentes do Brasil, da Argentina, do Uruguai e Paraguai, países que formam o Mercosul, estarão reunidos para o anúncio de acordos que vêm sendo analisados por vários grupos técnicos desde o último dia 31. Os presidentes dos países associados ao bloco - Chile, Bolívia, Peru, Venezuela, Colômbia e Equador - também deverão participar do encontro.
Na noite de ontem, um comunicado da chanceleria argentina informou que para consolidar a união aduaneira do Mercosul, a cúpula de San Juan deverá examinar as diretrizes que poderão estabelecer a eliminação do pagamento duplo pelas mercadorias que circulam no bloco. Atualmente, quando um produto é importado de países fora do Mercosul e entra no Brasil, na Argentina, no Uruguai ou Paraguai, paga uma taxa de importação. Em seguida, paga uma segunda taxa para circular dentro do bloco.
Segundo a chancelaria argentina, pela primeira vez deverão ser aprovados projetos dos quatro países tratando de importantes obras de infraestrutura em matéria de interconexão energética e rodoviária, além de projetos que favorecem a competitividade empresarial e a coesão social do Mercosul.
>>>> Disponível em http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/sala-de-imprensa/selecao-diaria-de-noticias/midias-nacionais/brasil/agencia-brasil/2010/08/02/lula-chega-hoje-a-san-juan-para-a-39a-cupula-do
quarta-feira, 21 de julho de 2010
Argentina crea tensión en Mercosur
El país sudamericano, que tuvo un alza en sus exportaciones de 25 por ciento anual en mayo, respondió a la crisis financiera global limitando la importación de zapatos, frutas frescas y otros bienes que también se producen localmente.
Los frenos, diseñados para proteger puestos de trabajo y aumentar la producción local, incluyen desde retrasos administrativos en las fronteras y en la aduana hasta medidas antidumping en bienes como productos de acero y textiles.
China frenó sus compras de aceite de soja argentino en respuesta a las restricciones.
Quejas separadas de la Unión Europea en la Organización Mundial de Comercio (OMC) y de Brasil, el principal destino para las exportaciones argentinas, instalaron la duda de que la política proteccionista de Argentina podría fracasar.
"Argentina está creando cierta tensión con sus políticas de comercio formales e informales", dijo Dante Sica, experto en comercio y jefe de la consultora Abeceb.com.
Frustraciones sobre las medidas argentinas también salpicaron las negociaciones para abrir nuevos mercados para productores del país, incluyendo charlas sobre un acuerdo entre el Mercosur y la Unión Europea, que podría crear la zona de libre comercio más grande del mundo.
Por el momento, las exportaciones de Argentina evolucionan favorablemente. Sus productores de aceite de soja encontraron nuevos clientes en India, Bangladesh y Perú, y están disfrutando de una buena cosecha. Los exportadores argentinos de granos, autos y bienes de consumo también están encontrando muchos clientes, especialmente en Brasil.
Enrique Mantilla, presidente de la Cámara de Exportadores de Argentina (CERA), manifestó que las exportaciones del país aumentarán 17 por ciento este año respecto del mismo período de 2009. El mes pasado, ministros de agricultura de Europa dijeron que los frenos de Argentina a alimentos importados amenazaba con truncar el acuerdo UE y Mercosur, que uniría el bloque europeo con Brasil, Argentina, Paraguay y Uruguay, y que implica comercio valuado en 65.000 millones de euros (82.000 millones de dólares) por año.
Una posición defensiva
Roberto Bouzas, un profesor de economía en la Universidad argentina de San Andrés, dijo que la posición defensiva en materia de comercio del país sería sólo una espina en esas negociaciones, que se reiniciaron en mayo luego de una interrupción de seis años. "Sin duda lo dificulta. Sin embargo, los obstáculos para un acuerdo exceden en mucho ese problema", indicó Bouzas. Boris Segura, economista de RBS Securities para América Latina, señaló que Argentina necesita "jugar a la pelota" y ser claro sobre las restricciones que está imponiendo para evitar perder el acceso a los mercados".
>>>> Dispononível em http://www.larepublica.com.co/archivos/GLOBO/2010-07-20/argentina-crea-tension-en-mercosur_105868.php
O INTERNET EXPLORER 8 DÁ DICAS DE SEGURANÇA PARA VOCÊ SAIBA MAIS!
Ministro pede apoio para acordo Mercosul-Jordânia
Ministro pede apoio para acordo Mercosul-Jordânia
Conforme a ANBA antecipou ontem, os jordanianos querem que o tratado seja concluído sob a presidência brasileira do bloco sul-americano, neste semestre. As negociações comerciais brasileiras são de responsabilidade do Ministério das Relações Exteriores, o Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior (MDIC) dá apoio.
Segundo informações do MDIC, Hadidi sugeriu também que o ministério brasileiro organize uma missão empresarial à Jordânia ainda este ano. Miguel Jorge já tem programada para outubro uma viagem ao Oriente Médio. Ele vai liderar uma delegação de empresários aos países árabes do Golfo.
Hadidi e os ministros jordanianos Said Al-Masri (Agricultura) e Maha Khatib (Turismo) passaram o dia em reuniões com representantes do governo brasileiro. Masri, por exemplo, visitou a Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) e teve um encontro com seu colega brasileiro, Wagner Rossi.
Masri disse a Rossi, de acordo informações do Ministério da Agricultura, que a Jordânia pretende ampliar a importação de produtos brasileiros, entre eles alguns que ainda não são comprados pelo país, como os lácteos. Ontem, em entrevista à ANBA, o ministro jordaniano antecipou que falaria sobre o tema na conversa de hoje.
A Jordânia tem interesse também na área de biocombustíveis, na indústria de máquinas e equipamentos agrícolas e no intercâmbio de pesquisas agropecuárias. Hadidi e Masri se encontraram também com o ministro da Ciência e Tecnologia, Sérgio Rezende.
A ministra Maha Khatib teve reuniões com o ministro brasileiro do Turismo, Luiz Barreto, e a presidente da Embratur, Jeanine Pires. De acordo com informações da pasta, ela reiterou que o Brasil é uma das prioridades na estratégia de promoção da Jordânia como destino turístico.
Ela participou também de um workshop com diretores de diversos departamentos do ministério para saber mais sobre os programas desenvolvidos pelo governo brasileiro na área.
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quarta-feira, 30 de junho de 2010
Amorim se reúne com chanceler da Argentina
30/06/2010
Da Agência Brasil
Brasília - O ministro das Relações Exteriores, Celso Amorim, recebe hoje (30), às 18h, no Itamaraty, o ministro das Relações Exteriores, Comércio Internacional e Culto da Argentina, Héctor Timerman.
É a primeira visita oficial do ministro argentino, que assumiu as funções em 22 de junho. Na pauta do encontro, os principais pontos da agenda bilateral, como o andamento de projetos estratégicos no âmbito do Mecanismo de Integração e Cooperação Brasil-Argentina (Micba), a evolução do comércio bilateral e da integração das duas economias.
Os chanceleres vão discutir ainda a realização da próxima Cúpula do Mercosul, o desenvolvimento da União de Nações Sul-Americanas (Unasul) e as possibilidades de cooperação para a reconstrução do Haiti.
Edição: Graça Adjuto
>>>>Disponível em http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/sala-de-imprensa/selecao-diaria-de-noticias/midias-nacionais/brasil/agencia-brasil/2010/06/30/amorim-se-reune-com-chanceler-da-argentina
..:: Juan Robles ::..
O SEU NAVEGADOR PODE TE PROTEGER DE FRAUDES NA WEB. VEJA DICAS DE INTERNET EXPLORER 8